The Polymarket Signal: Decoding the 65% Probability of Bitcoin at $70K
On July 4, a quiet but telling shift occurred on Polymarket. The probability...
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•
CryptoSam
•
2026-07-04
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Fear & Greed
25
Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202618
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$64,867.1
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,921.98
1
Solana
SOL
$77.5
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$581
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.11
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0741
1
Cardano
ADA
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1
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1
Polkadot
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1
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All →Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xbfa8...43e0
5m ago
Stake
29,040 BNB
🔵
0x49bf...a1c9
12h ago
Stake
8,520,977 DOGE
🔵
0x1975...32d7
12h ago
Stake
3,805,420 USDT
💡 Smart Money
0x0689...1c2d
Institutional Custody
+$3.8M
76%
0x10e5...ed60
Experienced On-chain Trader
-$4.0M
79%
0x5447...37b0
Market Maker
+$2.1M
87%